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In this paper the authors argue that a plausible reason why output and other major U.S. macroeconomic time series seem to follow a Markov switching process might be strictly related to expectations. The authors show that a time series of expectations of future output from the Survey of...
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predictors of interest), selective search within the range of possible models, control of collinearity, out-of-sample forecasting …
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La psicologia mostra che la probabilità soggettiva associata ad eventi economici futuri viene distorta in modo sistematico, rispetto a quella oggettiva, da elementi psicologici diffusi e persistenti. Lo stesso vale per l'interpretazione retrospettiva dei fatti economici. In particolare, si...
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suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use of a class of shrinkage estimators that includes the Ridge … estimator for forecasting time series, with a special attention to GARCH and ACD models. The local large sample properties of …-daily financial durations forecasting application. The empirical application shows that an appropriate shrinkage forecasting …
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