to follow a Markov switching process might be strictly related to expectations. The authors show that a time series of … expectations of future output from the Survey of Professional Forecasters is the only one among the many they analyze that has … model with shocks to expectations (sunspots) that produces time series with the same properties as the U.S. data. …

predictors of interest), selective search within the range of possible models, control of collinearity, out-of-sample forecasting …