Country risk and sovereign risk are two of the most important topics in risk management. The first part of this work introduces these concepts and shows the differences between them. The following chapters fit linear and ordinal regression models to a data-set with more than 100 countries, where...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for non-negative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of such a model, by taking...

The study offer a contribution to the analysis of the problems linked to the environmental migration focusing on a specific Mediterranean area, that of the Middle East and Northern Africa. After a brief analysis of the socio-economic and environmental context, used to describe the vulnerability...

The estimation method of Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) with Principal Components (2SPC) is applied to a medium-sized nonlinear econometric model of the Italian Economy.

In questo articolo si sviluppa un nuovo approccio per il calcolo del Value-at-Risk che utilizza il Filtro di Kalman per stimare il beta dei titoli di un portafoglio. Tale tecnica viene applicata al portafoglio azionario di una società assicurativa e confrontata con i metodi tradizionali basati...

Financial time series analysis has focused on data related to market trading activity. Next to the modeling of the conditional variance of returns within the GARCH family of models, recent attention has been devoted to other variables: first, and foremost, volatility measured on the basis of...

The explosion of algorithmic trading has been one of the most prominent recent trends in the financial industry. Algorithmic trading consists of automated trading strategies that attempt to minimize transaction costs by optimally placing orders. The key ingredient of many of these strategies are...

Problems related to deterministic solution of nonlinear econometric models are well known in the literature. The use of mean (average) stochastic simulation results has been usually proposed to solve the problem of bias. This raises however other types of problems, like possible non-coherent...

The transmission mechanisms of volatility between markets can be characterized within a new Markov Switching bivariate model where the state of one variable feeds into the transition probability of the state of the other. A number of model restrictions and hypotheses can be tested to stress the...