The transmission mechanisms of volatility between markets can be characterized within a new Markov Switching bivariate model where the state of one variable feeds into the transition probability of the state of the other. A number of model restrictions and hypotheses can be tested to stress the...

English Abstract: They can be seen as the sum of a bond and an option (derivative component). The work explores some of the issues for the evaluation of the theoretical value (or fair value) of this type of bonds, providing an order of magnitude of the difference between the issue price (gross...

English abstract: This paper investigates how Covid mobility restrictions impacted the population of investors of the Italian stock market.The research is the result of a collaboration between Consob and the Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa. The analysis tracks the trading activity of individual...

The increasing use of internal market models for market risk assessment and management promotes, in compliance with Basel II, better risk management practices but introduces at the same time the so called model risk. In the light of the many open issues connected to market risk, the aim of this...

Italian Abstract: In mancanza di dati infrannuali tempestivi sulla dinamica del prodotto regionale, questo lavoro costruisce un nuovo indicatore dell'attività economica del Veneto che stima in tempo reale l'evoluzione mensile di medio-lungo termine del PIL regionale. La metodologia si basa...

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the...

Financial time series analysis has focused on data related to market trading activity. Next to the modeling of the conditional variance of returns within the GARCH family of models, recent attention has been devoted to other variables: first, and foremost, volatility measured on the basis of...

In questo articolo si sviluppa un nuovo approccio per il calcolo del Value-at-Risk che utilizza il Filtro di Kalman per stimare il beta dei titoli di un portafoglio. Tale tecnica viene applicata al portafoglio azionario di una società assicurativa e confrontata con i metodi tradizionali basati...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...

Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) can be used to trace the dynamics of non–negative valued processes. Interactions between several such processes are accommodated by the vector MEM and estimated by maximum likelihood (Gamma marginals with copula functions) or by Generalized Method of Moments....