The estimation method of Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) with Principal Components (2SPC) is applied to a medium-sized nonlinear econometric model of the Italian Economy.

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

Country risk and sovereign risk are two of the most important topics in risk management. The first part of this work introduces these concepts and shows the differences between them. The following chapters fit linear and ordinal regression models to a data-set with more than 100 countries, where...

In this work we have found a relevant increase in the systematic risk of the American real estate securities in the year 2007 which go to the initial values in the year 2009. With the aim to evaluate the systematic risk we have used the Fama-French three factor model and we have studied the...

We investigate the occurrence of risk sharing among Italian regions with respect to both long run and short run income fluctuations by means of Vector Equilibrium Correction Models (VEqCMs) which allow to test all implications of the theory without preliminary filtering or transformations of...

Nell'ottica di una valutazione dell'impatto di riforme del sistema di imposte e benefici sull'offerta di lavoro, sulla finanza pubblica e sulla distribuzione del reddito rivestono fondamentale importanza la qualità e la reliability dei dati necessari alla costruzione del data-set di variabili...

Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in a flexible fashion. The resulting unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator can be too heavily parameterized and suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...

The frequency of crashes and the magnitude of crises in international financial markets are growing more severe over time. Recent financial crises are not singular events portrayed in recent accounts, rather, they erupt in circumstances that are very similar to the economic and financial...

We analyze several measures of volatility (realized variance, bipower variation and squared daily returns) as estimators of integrated variance of a continuous time stochastic process for an asset price. We use a Multiplicative Error Model to describe the evolution of each measure as the product...