This text presents a study of various models based on jump processes in the context of foreign exchange (FX) rates modeling. Quality of FX rate log-returns fit is assessed for models such as Merton and Kou jump-diffusions, normal inverse Gaussian, variance gamma, and Meixner. The study is...

Forward foreign exchange contracts embed not only expected depreciation but also a sizable premium, which complicates inferences about anticipated returns. This study derives arbitrage-free affine forward currency models (AFCMs) with closed-form expressions for both unobservable variables. Model...

We sort currencies by countries’ consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

We study the relationship between foreign exchange trading activity and volatility on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market on the basis of a unique data set around the events of 09/11/2001. We find that volatility and bid-ask spreads are by far larger at that time, but the shock is not...

This paper analyses the effect of nine categories of news announcements on the quoting activity of individual FX dealers on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate from May to October 2001. We use the Double Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model (DACP), which is designed for time series of count data,...

This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currency markets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selection and customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade's likely...

This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders' characteristics in an electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with...

Indeed, the specification of equilibrium in the world economy depends on the exchange rate regime and thus, the early contributions to the postwar literature on exchange rate economics are to a large extent concerened with the role of speculation in foreign exchange markets. However, the world...