macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and …

provision of future living expenses. This phenomenon is expected to slow down the growth of housing demand, on top of young … households decreasing demand for housing and shrinking residential areas. In addition, as the number of elderly household with 1 …~2 people increases and the need for liquidation of housing assets after retirement grows, demand for small- to mid-sized houses …

forecasts are decreasing in the forecast horizon …

positive effect of the MOVE shock on treasury rate volatility for up to about 4 months . Also, forecast error variance …

serious type II error problem in out-sample forecast. The implication is that SEM based on broader panel data even though it … should be inferior in in-sample forecast turns out to be superior in out sample forecast essentially because it has more case …

. The variance ratio statistic based on in-sample estimation of GARCH-MIDAS models shows that macroeconomic components … stock volatility. In addition to in-sample estimation, we conduct out-of-sample forecasts to investigate adequacy of …

English Abstract: This paper suggests a Gibbs sampling estimation of an unobserved component cointegrated VAR Model to … smaller or equivalent to the estimation results of Chow-Lin (1971), Denton (1971), Fernandez (1981), and Litterman (1983).The … ex post forecasts Korean monthly GDP(therefore quarterly GDP) in 6 month horizon and compares the forecast performance …

Product, GRDP)의 조기추정(early estimation 또는 nowcasting) 및 단기 전망(short horizon forecasting)은 중요하다. 본 연구는 혼합주기 경제데이터를 다층 퍼셉트론 … conduct three experiments to examine its forecast, nowcast, and backcast performance. We find that the mean absolute … summary, deep learning is a promising tool in economic forecast with time series data sampled at different frequencies …