This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability … the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As explained in the text, the NAILO should not be confused with the country … inflation rate between 0.5 and 0.7 pp (percentage points). We also observed a very close relationship between changes in the …

up in the following: i) the pass-through to the next month inflation is around 0.04 percentage points (p.p.) (0.48 p ….p. over the annualized inflation); ii) a shock on the unemployment rate lasts for 18 months; iii) a shock on the expectations … are carried to the next month inflation (0.58 p.p. over the annualized inflation); and iv) a shock on the inflation rate …

study, the following are more remarkable. Firstly, the inflationary inertia and expectation of inflation are important … variables for the dynamic of inflation although the relevance of expectation seems to be more relevant in a more recent period … that the sum of coefficients of lagged inflation and expectation of inflation is equal to unity. Thirdly, the effect of …

) restrictions over the sum of the coefficients associated with inflation; b) the coefficient associated to the expectation of … inflation is greater than the coefficient associated with past inflation (which is in contrast with previous studies to the … determinants of current inflation. …

variables. These results cast some doubts about the ability of the Phillips curve to describe the dynamics of inflation in the …