This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

This work aims to analyze if the trajectory and composition of net and gross, public debt and external liabilities can hinder the growth of Brazilian GDP. The work concludes that fiscal indicators are more comfortable that external indicators. The net public debt is falling and less linked to...