This article presents a review of empirical literature regarding the credibility of economic policy, dedicating special attention to the econometric techniques used. The literature researched is comprised of two groups based on the type of econometric technique employed. However, within the main...

This paper analyzes the Brazilian case, the transient conditions of employment levels and income distribution in the country, using micro data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) produced by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) to assess the effects of macroeconomic...

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 2004 and the third trimester of 2012, by applying the new Jeanne e Rancière (2011) framework, using different scenarios. The estimates of the optimal holdings of this asset are calculated...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...