This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

Portuguese Abstract: O estudo dos séculos XIX e XX evidencia o carácter cíclico da economia, isto é, a repetição constante de fases ascendentes seguidas de uma crise (um momento de inversão conjuntural no ciclo económico) e, finalmente, um período depressivo. Regista-se neste artigo as...

This article uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework to study exchange rate pass-through to producer and consumer prices in Brasil. We identify two long-run and one short-run relations in data. We calculate the impulse-response function of domestic prices to exchange rate shock....

Recorremos à teoria do canal do crédito para avaliar a integração de uma pequena economia, com instabilidade nominal, numa união monetária desenhada para garantir um elevado nível de estabilidade monetária. Conclui-se que o choque estrutural da integração na união monetária pode...

This article verifies the occurrence of a real estate bubble in the Brazilian economy. Overall, our results suggest the existence of a bubble in the real estate sector of the economy. The Austrian School of economics provides a solid explanation to this phenomenon, which are reinforced by...

The vector autoregressive and structural vector autoregressive (VAR/SVAR) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for measuring the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support...

So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal studies, as they are relate to fiscal...