We apply and test term structure fitting models like polynomial splines, flat forward and Nelson-Siegel to the Brazilian local term structure. They are models used all over the world by authorities and financial markets practitioners but less known locally. These models were tested with a large...

The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy in the estimation allows the stipulation of an expenditure level that meets the demands of the population. Using data released by the National Council of Treasury Policy, the...

The Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade - SIM) is the only statistically reliable nationwide database that allows calculating the annual homicide rates for each Federative Unit (FU) since 1980. Concerning to data on violent deaths, two elements, however, may...

This paper aims to evaluate empirically the economic effects of loans from Constitutional Financial Funds to the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf) in the municipalities of their respective regions. In addition to the data of those loans for the period 2012-2016, we...

This work has objetive to discuss a new approach for the model IS-LM proposal by Romer (2000), which curved LM is substituted by a curved MP (monetary policy of the Central Bank). The work was motivated by the need of a more coherent model with the current economic reality for forecast and...

The main goal of this paper is to combine micro and macro-evaluations of the Constitutional Financing Funds for the Northeast (FNE) focusing on the analysis of Ceará state in order to control for spatial heterogeneity. It aims to measure the impact of the FNE industrial loans on employment and...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the Brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the Quarterly Accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. In the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. The...

This paper attempts to extend empirical investigations about the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the Brazilian economy. We specify and estimate a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output, price level, exchange rate and a monetary policy indicator (Selic...

This paper shows new econometric estimates for the Brazilian function of aggregate imports. Besides the basic relation, which includes income and relative price and identifies a demand equation (canonic model), we explore the pronounced co-movements between total imports, household consumption...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...