This article aims to estimate the dynamic factor model for prediction tax receipts in Brazil using monthly data for the period 2001-2013. The factorial model allows to reduce the dimensionality of the high number of taxes taking into account the information contained in the existing...

This article verifies the occurrence of a real estate bubble in the Brazilian economy. Overall, our results suggest the existence of a bubble in the real estate sector of the economy. The Austrian School of economics provides a solid explanation to this phenomenon, which are reinforced by...

This paper attempts to extend empirical investigations about the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the Brazilian economy. We specify and estimate a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output, price level, exchange rate and a monetary policy indicator (Selic...

This study aimed to the application of forecasts combination of model to predict tax revenues in Brazil. Here we combine the predictions obtained from three models: dynamic factor model (DFM), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) and model of Holt-Winters smoothing. We...

So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal studies, as they are relate to fiscal...

The uncertainties and economic effects after the outbreak of Covid-19 raised major concerns about the business conditions of the Brazilian automotive sector. This study contributes to this debate in course and analyzes the demand and supply of automobiles and light commercial vehicles in the...

The objective of this study is to perform an econometric modeling exercise of the individual series of taxes aiming to obtain income elasticity and the future projection for each tax. For this, we apply dynamic linear models (MLD) and dynamic factor (MFD), both estimated based on the Bayesian...

In this study, we undertook an econometric analysis aim to forecast the disaggregated series of ICMS administered by Confaz. Three methodologies were applied: i) the dynamic structural model (BSTS); ii) the dynamic linear model (MLD); and iii) the dynamic factorial model (MFD), all of them...

The vector autoregressive and structural vector autoregressive (VAR/SVAR) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for measuring the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support...

We use data from the period 2009-15 to estimate the impact of the public policy aiming to decrease the taxes paid by companies over their payroll. The objective of this program, so called Less Taxes on the Payroll ("Desoneração da Folha de Pagamento"), was to burst the employment in the firms...