The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy in the estimation allows the stipulation of an expenditure level that meets the demands of the population. Using data released by the National Council of Treasury Policy, the...

The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy in the estimation allows the stipulation of an expenditure level that meets the demands of the population. Using data released by the National Council of Treasury Policy, the...

This paper attempts to extend empirical investigations about the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the Brazilian economy. We specify and estimate a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output, price level, exchange rate and a monetary policy indicator (Selic...

This paper attempts to extend empirical investigations about the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the Brazilian economy. We specify and estimate a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output, price level, exchange rate and a monetary policy indicator (Selic...

The vector autoregressive and structural vector autoregressive (VAR/SVAR) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for measuring the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support...

So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal studies, as they are relate to fiscal...

So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal studies, as they are relate to fiscal...

The vector autoregressive and structural vector autoregressive (VAR/SVAR) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for measuring the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support...

This paper has as objective to present a practical method for building a composite economic activity index for local economies. As an example, the index was built using data for the city of Maringá-PR. In its development we employed factor analysis technique to find the principal components...

This paper studies the applicability of time series models as a decision tool of buy and sell orders of live cattle futures contracts in the Brazilian Futures Market (BM&F), on dates close to expiration. The models considered are: ARIMA, Neural Networks and Dynamic Linear Models - DLM (this in...