This paper discusses the problem of estimating unknown change point in the trend function of a time series regression model. The error process considered here is a Gaussian stationary process with spectral density. The asymptotic properties of quasi maximum likelihood (QMLE) and quasi Bayes...

This article presents various econometric specifications - most notably Markov- Switching models - for the fiscal reaction function of the Brazilian consolidated public sector after the 1994 ?Real Plan?. The results reported here strongly suggest that a major structural break has happened in the...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the Brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the Quarterly Accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. In the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. The...

This study suggests an alternative approach, nested in exogeneity tests, to verify Ricardian Equivalence. The intuitive appeal and the sophisticated statistical method are the advantage of this new procedure. Furthermore, two others contributions are made: a) an explanation to the failure of...

This paper shows new econometric estimates for the Brazilian function of aggregate imports. Besides the basic relation, which includes income and relative price and identifies a demand equation (canonic model), we explore the pronounced co-movements between total imports, household consumption...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

The technological and institutional environment influences the way of doing research and the relationships between its participants. Intellectual property is a strategic issue to build the institutional framework of the new technological regime and therefore the dynamics of innovation in...

This article discusses the dynamics of both the size and the composition of the Brazilian aggregate tax burden (BATB) in the 1995-2007 period and presents several (linear and non-linear) econometric specifications for this last variable. Our main conclusion - based both on the analysis of the...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

In this work we consider modeling the past volatilities through a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model using the Bayesian approach. Asymmetries in the shocks are accommodated by smooth transition models for the variance. We discuss problems related to the...