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In this study, we undertook an econometric analysis aim to forecast the disaggregated series of ICMS administered by … three types of results: i) the evaluation of the forecast; ii) the elasticity of the tax in relation to the relevant … validate the forecast displayed a quite reasonable performance. From about 20 series for each state, approximately 80% register …
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In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...
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the purpose of making projections. The different forecast validation criteria calculated for a 12-month horizon showed … very satisfactory results. In all cases, MLD had a forecast error within the 3% range, taken as a reference for the …
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