This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common European growth cycle. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions (MS-AR) are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate of industrial production. A Markov switching vector autoregression...

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 2004 and the third trimester of 2012, by applying the new Jeanne e Rancière (2011) framework, using different scenarios. The estimates of the optimal holdings of this asset are calculated...

This paper aims to reapproach the external vulnerability of the brazilian economy, based on the the theory and considering the new conditions of the world economy and the transformations that carachterized the Brazilian economy in this century, in the period or rapid growth (until 2010) as well...

This paper analyzes Brazilian vulnerability to changes in international state of expectations as a result from the nature of its insertion in the external scenario and from institutional changes in foreign exchange market and financial account convertibility. For that purpose, it evaluates the...

The IMF has always supported the free financial flows of capital, based on the concept that they improve economic growth in itself. This perception has debilitated since the global economic crisis beginning in 2007. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the IMF's way of...

The real exchange rate (RER) can be considered one of the most important relative price of economics, given the influence it exerts on many other prices and variables, and may be overvalued, among other factors, as a symptom of the existence of a Dutch disease process. Thus, seeking to prove...

The financial account of the balance of payments aggregates a set of heterogeneous flows, with marked differences in terms of purpose, risk, maturity and liquidity. With this perspective, the paper analyzes the factors that explain comparatively extreme events occurred in the flows of the three...

The objective of this is study is to assert the role of domestic financial system as mitigating of sudden stops episodes and driver of capital flows in a group of 14 emerging economies in the period of 1999-2013, especially in face of unfavorable external environment such as high international...

Capital mobility and economic growth: towards a theoretical synthesis - This paper aims at exploring theoretically the literature regarding capital flows liberalization and economic growth. Precisely, we intend to analyze the role of capital controls over economic growth. Mainstream literature...

In recent years, Brazilian economic performance has been influenced by increasingly volatile financial flows and episodes of capital flight, which have occurred mainly due to external events, out of control or influence of the domestic monetary authorities. This paper aims to measure the...