This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common European growth cycle. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions (MS-AR) are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate of industrial production. A Markov switching vector autoregression...

In this paper we investigate the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate volatility in emerging and developing countries. We pointed out channels of influence of exchange rate volatility on the growth of economies, through investment, trade flows, asymmetric shocks and capital...

This study aims to examine the theoretical literature concerning exchange-rate and balance-of-payments determination, in order to investigate how an exchange rate change may affect one country's foreign trade flows. Therefore, we analyze the different categories of balance-of-payments models -...

The real exchange rate (RER) can be considered one of the most important relative price of economics, given the influence it exerts on many other prices and variables, and may be overvalued, among other factors, as a symptom of the existence of a Dutch disease process. Thus, seeking to prove...

This study aims to analyze empirically the interactions between exchange rate behavior and the performance of Brazilian foreign trade. First, the empirical literature on the subject is reviewed, in order to elucidate methodological issues such as appropriate model type, identification strategy,...

In this paper, we describe the operation of the foreign exchange (FX) market in Brazil and discuss the relations between prices of derivatives and spot prices. A literature review of interventions in the FX market is done. Then, we study, in a descriptive way, the interventions of the Central...

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 2004 and the third trimester of 2012, by applying the new Jeanne e Rancière (2011) framework, using different scenarios. The estimates of the optimal holdings of this asset are calculated...

This paper aims to compare two different methodologies to estimate exchange rate misalignment. The first methodology consists in using multivariate time series techniques and a model with domestic variables. The second methodology consists in Pesaran's Global Vector Error Correction Model with...

This paper aims to discuss a methodology to calculate the error bands for exchange rate misalignments estimative. The exchange misalignment is not directly observed and its precision depends on the coefficients that link fundamentals to real effective exchange rate. The precision of exchange...

This study aims to test the existence of cointegration between variables that are typically used to estimate the existence of exchange rate misalignment for a sample of developed and developing countries, many of whom are members of the G20. The methodology consists in cointegration analysis...