This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the...

The paper uses the procedure developed first by Campbell (1987) to test, for the Brazilian economy, the proposition that the balance of the current account is negatively related to the present value of the future changes of the GDP net of the investment and consumption of the government. Within...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of economic downturn with the crisis of 2009 on the Brazilian economy, especially on activity sectors and states. To get a consistent picture of these impacts, which takes into account economic macroeconomic indicators and sectoral data (exports...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the role of the manufacturing sector in the development process through the first two laws of Kaldor. The first states that the higher the growth of industrial output, more significant is the growth rate of the product of the economy as a whole. The second...

The paper analyzes the process of Brazilian deindustrialization from the perspective of the transformations occurred in the global economic system in the last three decades. Realizes the performance of the Brazilian industry in the international economy from the technological, productive,...

This paper debates some dilemmas involved in today`s Brazilian industrial policy. First, I will explain the current industrial policy debate in Brazil, stressing the dilemmas involved in supporting the development of technology-intensive sectors in a highly diversified economy led by low and...

The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential process of early deindustrialization in Brazil, or the reduction of the share of manufacturing in the added value, that occurred in a per capita income level that, according to the specialized literature, it is not justified. For this intent, we...