Este artigo analisa, através de dados intradiários, coletados minuto a minuto, o efeito do dia de vencimento de contratos de opções de compra de ações sobre a negociação das ações subjacentes negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo. Para tanto, foram usadas as séries de opções...

The evaluation of forecasts performance of market expectations about the Brazilian inflation rate (Focus survey) is important given the prominent role of these expectations in the conduction of monetary policy in Brazil. Lima e Céspedes (2006) showed that, in the period 2000.1 2005.4, several...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...

This article discusses which may be the trajectory of the Brazilian economy over the 2020s, particularly in the transition from the current period when there is idle capacity in the economy to a period when the growth of supply capacity may again be crucial for growth. From the context created...