The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy in the estimation allows the stipulation of an expenditure level that meets the demands of the population. Using data released by the National Council of Treasury Policy, the...

The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy in the estimation allows the stipulation of an expenditure level that meets the demands of the population. Using data released by the National Council of Treasury Policy, the...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...

This paper tests Phillips curves using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) specification that encompasses the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), the Hybrid Phillips curve (HPC), the Sticky-Information Phillips curve (SIPC), and the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC). We use data from...

The paper aims to evaluate the economic impact of the North Constitutional Regional Fund (FNO). The study uses different spatial scales to analyse the impact of FNO on gross national product (GDP) per capita growth between 2004 and 2010. In sum, the fixed effects panel data estimations show that...

The paper aims to evaluate the economic impact of the Center-West Constitutional Regional Fund (FCO). The study uses different spatial scales to analyse the impact of FCO on GDP per capita growth between 2004 and 2010. The results of the fixed effects panel data estimations show that FCO impacts...

The study evaluates the Constitutional Financing Fund for the Center-West (FCO) in the state of Goiás between the years 2004 and 2011, using Rais microdata, and loans from the FCO "Empresarial" Program. The results show a positive and statistically significant impact of the FCO on employment...