We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate...

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

This paper estimates the conditional volatility of the main Brazilian stock market index (Ibovespa), using traditional models of the GARCH family and models of stochastic volatility (SV). Most model selection and performance criteria suggest that both aproaches capture well Ibovespa's...

The Republic of Mozambique is experiencing a significant social and economic change and needs an updated informative base to allow policy-makers to found their decision on reliable and comparable data. The fast development of the Non Observed Economy (NOE) was one of the most important...

Estimates based on household surveys often differ considerably from administrative records. In the PNADs, for instance, the estimated number of beneficiaries of the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) and of the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) are always lower than the official figures....

The Brazilian municipalities show a huge disparity in income level. The GDP per capita difference between the richest and the poorest municipalities is about 190 times, according to IBGE (2000) database. Institutionalist theory provides a plausible explanation for the gap among municipalities...

After the year 2000 homicides data shows an increasing in Brazil. Our attention directed to quantify those who are survivors or co-victims of homicide. Our initial exercise is a methodology to calculate the quantity of survivors from homicide against afro Brazilian black people. In 2010, for...

This article brings new inputs to debate outsourcing in Brazil, using a new methodology based on administrative records. With this methodology, it is possible to identify 4.02 million outsourced workers, corresponding to 11.7% of total employees in the urban private sector. Moreover, with this...