We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate...

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

This paper estimates the conditional volatility of the main Brazilian stock market index (Ibovespa), using traditional models of the GARCH family and models of stochastic volatility (SV). Most model selection and performance criteria suggest that both aproaches capture well Ibovespa's...

The Republic of Mozambique is experiencing a significant social and economic change and needs an updated informative base to allow policy-makers to found their decision on reliable and comparable data. The fast development of the Non Observed Economy (NOE) was one of the most important...

This article is a contribution of the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - Ipea) to the evaluation of the My House My Life Program (Minha Casa Minha Vida - PMCMV) carried out within the scope of the Public Policy Monitoring and Evaluation Council...

The covid-19 pandemic has been devastating for small businesses, being responsible for an abrupt fall in demand, interruption of economic activities, and, in many cases, bankruptcy of numerous enterprises. Data from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) indicate that, until June...

Estimates based on household surveys often differ considerably from administrative records. In the PNADs, for instance, the estimated number of beneficiaries of the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) and of the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) are always lower than the official figures....

The Brazilian municipalities show a huge disparity in income level. The GDP per capita difference between the richest and the poorest municipalities is about 190 times, according to IBGE (2000) database. Institutionalist theory provides a plausible explanation for the gap among municipalities...