This paper attempts to extend empirical investigations about the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the Brazilian economy. We specify and estimate a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output, price level, exchange rate and a monetary policy indicator (Selic...

This paper attempts to extend empirical investigations about the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the Brazilian economy. We specify and estimate a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive model including output, price level, exchange rate and a monetary policy indicator (Selic...

This study aims to analyze the evolution and characteristics of overeducation in Brazil between 2012 and 2023 using data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC). Overeducated workers are those who perform jobs that require less than their level of education,...

This study introduces and evaluates a bottom-up methodology for projecting the Gross Value-Added of the agricultural sector (agricultural GDP). This approach integrates econometric methods with early crop forecasts, which are released one year ahead of annual production figures by specialized...

This paper analyzes the dynamic properties of a DSGE model for Brazil, under alternative model parameterizations. First, we carefully review the literature in order to identify admissible ranges for the model's parameters. We then calculate selected impulse response functions (IRF) under various...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

This paper estimates the primary structural budget balance (eliminating the effects due to cyclical fluctuations in GDP and oil price) for the central government and public administrations from 1997 to the second quarter of 2010. Some adjustments were made on the IMF methodology to account for...

This paper presents the first results of an ongoing project aimed at building and putting into operation a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Brazil. The model is based on Smets and Wouters (2003) and Christiano ET AL.(2005), to which we add features that are typical of...

This paper estimates the primary structural balance and the fiscal impulse for the Brazilian public administrations from 1997 to 2010. We performed two adjustments: i) initially, one-off measures (including those resulting from creative accounting) were identified; and, ii) after this correction,...

This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between capital account liberalization,economic performance and macroeconomic stability in Brazil. For this purpose,besides a revision in the literature, the paper develops an empirical study on the effects of financial liberalization in Brazil on a...