We estimate a VAR model of the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Several different specifications, with different time frequencies, were estimated. Overall the results were robust to these changes, and can be summed up in the following: i) the pass-through to...

We estimate the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Besides panel data, we estimate the Phillips curve by time series methodology, including Bayesian techniques and Smoothing Transition Regressions (STR) model. The econometric results show three important...

The Financial Crisis has hit particularly hard countries like Ireland or Spain. Procyclical fiscal policy has contributed to a boom-bust cycle that undermined fiscal positions and deepened current account deficits during the boom. We set up an RBC model of a small open economy, following Mendoza...

One question associated with the business cycle agenda of research is to evaluate if the business cycle of different countries may present similar features despite the differences in institutions, industrial structures, public policies and growth rates that those countries may have. Backus and...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

Portuguese Abstract: O estudo dos séculos XIX e XX evidencia o carácter cíclico da economia, isto é, a repetição constante de fases ascendentes seguidas de uma crise (um momento de inversão conjuntural no ciclo económico) e, finalmente, um período depressivo. Regista-se neste artigo as...

This article uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework to study exchange rate pass-through to producer and consumer prices in Brasil. We identify two long-run and one short-run relations in data. We calculate the impulse-response function of domestic prices to exchange rate shock....