The article summarizes the key results of researches in the field of early warning systems for financial crises, conducted by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) since 2005. The proposed early warning system consists of three major blocks: the leading...

The second part of the article continues studying the structure of a set of variables. It consists of two pieces: (1) de-scription of a modification of Dempster covariance selection algorithm based on its combination with that of tree dependence structures construction, simulation results,...