Experiments of stochastic simulation on a nonlinear macroeconometric model are described in this paper. The results are used both for improving the validation of a model of the Italian economy and for revisiting the heuristic value of the stochastic simulation methodology.

This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of methods associating, to deterministic forecasts, a measure of the uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of behavioural equations. After having described the theoretical and practical...

In the econometric literature simulation techniques are suggested for estimating standard errors of forecasts, especially in case of nonlinear models, where explicit analytic formulae are not available. For this purpose analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, Monte...

Stochastic simulation with antithetic variates is used to evaluate the bias of deterministic simulation in nonlinear econometric models. Application to the Klein-Goldberger model exemplifies the potentiality of the method.

Results of stochastic simulation experiments are described in this paper. The model experimented with is a large scale macroeconometric model, developed at the University of Bonn for the German economy (Model 5).

The importance of the simulation (both deterministic and stochastic) in the validation process of a non linear econometric model is underlined. Synthetic results of a large set of simulations on a non linear model of the Italian economy are presented. The benefits and the risks of the stochastic...