Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier...

The evaluation of policy actions by means of a large scale econometric model often begins with the analysis of multipliers. A large value of a multiplier, with the right sign, suggests that the policy instrument should be very effective in moving up or down the given target variable. However,...

In the econometric literature simulation techniques are suggested for estimating standard errors of forecasts, especially in case of nonlinear models, where explicit analytic formulae are not available. For this purpose analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, Monte...

Some analytic simulation techniques for the analysis of the reduced form and of the dynamic properties of econometric models are described. Comparisons are made with analytical methods available for linear models.

Stochastic simulation with antithetic variates is used to evaluate the bias of deterministic simulation in nonlinear econometric models. Application to the Klein-Goldberger model exemplifies the potentiality of the method.

Results of stochastic simulation experiments are described in this paper. The model experimented with is a large scale macroeconometric model, developed at the University of Bonn for the German economy (Model 5).

The importance of the simulation (both deterministic and stochastic) in the validation process of a non linear econometric model is underlined. Synthetic results of a large set of simulations on a non linear model of the Italian economy are presented. The benefits and the risks of the stochastic...

The problem of deriving asymptotic statistical properties of impact multipliers from a consistent estimate of a structural non-linear econometric model is discussed. The theoretical aspects, which generalize the results derived by Goldberger, Nagar and Odeh for linear models, are analyzed in...

The estimator of the coefficient covariance matrix proposed in White (1982) can be used to robustify the classical Wald test. Sampling experiments recently performed on linear regressions and simultaneous equation models, however, suggest that such an estimator tends to underestimate the...

Starting from a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed structural estimate of a dynamic econometric model, this paper provides an analytical derivation of the asymptotic distribution of spectra and cross spectra of the jointly dependent variables. A numerical example is provided on...