In this article we estimate a small dynamic factor model (DFM) for the short-term forecasting of Slovak GDP. The model predicts the developments of real activity in the next two quarters on the basis of monthly data, which are published earlier than GDP. The regular release of various monthly...

In this article we estimate a small dynamic factor model (DFM) for the short-term forecasting of Slovak GDP. The model predicts the developments of real activity in the next two quarters on the basis of monthly data, which are published earlier than GDP. The regular release of various monthly...

The paper analyses the factors leading to the fall of long-term interest rates in the Czech Republic – respectively, the long-term interest rate differential in the Czech Republic and the Eurozone – between 1998 and 2003. The selection of factors is determined by the Fisher equation, UIP,...

This paper examines features of the Czech stock market’s development from 1997 to 2003 and attempts to unveil the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development. The analysis of the stock market’s behavior supports a cautionary stance on the hypothesis of the efficient-market theory,...

In this paper the authors try to measure production gap in the Czech Republic and, consequently, non-accelerating inflation product (NAIP) as an approximation of potential product. NAIP is treated as an unobservable variable, to which an augmented Phillips curve plays a key role in its...

Úspìch cílování inflace spoèívá v systematické reakci mìnové politiky na významnìjší poruchy. K zajištìní systémového chování musí být monetární politika explicitnì založena na støednìdobém makroekonomickém rámci s dopøedu hledícím transmisním mechanizmem....

Slovak Republic entered the ERM II in the end of 2005 whereby it came nearer to its strategic objective - joining the euro area. In this paper we try to answer two questions. Section 1 examines the features and risks of the EMU. Is EMU an optimum currency area and what is the OCA scorecard of...

V čase, keď sa globálna ekonomika ocitá v problémoch s klesajúcim ekonomickým rastom a rastúcou infláciou, pokračuje ďalšie rozširovanie členskej základne eurozóny. Globálna nerovnováha sa prejavuje aj na európskom finančnom trhu. Euro sa zhodnocuje oproti americkému...