In this paper, by utilizing the Poincaré–Bendixson theory and the Hopf bifurcation theory, we analyze both rigid-price and flexible-price nonlinear disequilibrium Keynesian macroeconomic systems, prove the existence of a persistent business cycle and derive the conditions for global...

Many countries have a large informal economy that is poorly measured in the national accounts. I develop a two-sector small open economy business cycle model where one sector is formal and the other is informal, and explore the effect that the informal sector has on measured business cycles. I...

We show diverse beliefs is an important propagation mechanism of fluctuations, money non neutrality and efficacy of monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand not supply shocks. Using a competitive model with...

The effects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is...

This paper investigates the precision of multivariate models of the output gap and considers their implications for the formulation of macroeconomic policy. Multivariate models identify the gap by including information from structural economic relationships, such as Okun's Law, the Phillips...

This paper empirically analyzes whether and to what extent the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines has affected their business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world. By employing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model...

This paper presents a DGE model in which aggregate price level inertia is generated endogenously by the optimizing behaviour of price-setting firms. All the usual sources of inertia are absent here ie., all firms are simultaneously free to change their price once every period and face no...

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policy shocks in a Real- Business-Cycle Model with money. In addition to technology shocks, I include government consumption, government investment, tax rate and monetary policy as sources of random disturbances. Money is introduced in a...

In a sticky-price model with labor market search and habit persistence, Walsh (2005) shows that inertia in the interest rate policy helps to reconcile the inflation and output persistence with empirical observations for the US economy. We show that this finding is sensitive with regard to the...