This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements,...

This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements,...

We present a new heteroskedastic conditional variance model using NonLinear Moving Average as the basis for this specification [NLMACH(q)]. The typical problem of this class of models-i.e., noninvertibility—is solved by means of an intuitive parametric restriction; this allows us to use...

En el análisis estadístico-descriptivo de la serie 1952-2003 para la economía boliviana, se observó que el comportamiento tendencial es dominante respecto al cíclico, por lo que la discrecionalidad de las políticas económicas no coadyuva al crecimiento económico. De esta manera, adquiere...

We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...

We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...