This paper focuses on the development of both failure prediction models on a paired sample and a random sample of small and medium-sized firms with head offices located in the region of Castilla y León (Spain), in order to prove if the predictive power of the developed models is affected by the...

Between 2000 and 2013, Latin America has considerably reduced poverty (from 46.3% to 29.7% of the population). In this paper, we use synthetic panels to show that, despite progress, the region remains characterized by substantial vulnerability that also affects the rising middle-class. More...

The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the...

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M'exico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April...

In the present decade, in emerging economies such as those in Latin-America, mixed logistic models have been started applying to predict the financial failure of companies. However, there are limitations for the methodology linked to the feasibility of predicting the state of new companies that...

The hierarchical structure of the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) makes possible to calculate inflation as a linear combination of its subcomponents. We use SARIMA models to forecast each component of CPI and construct an forecast of inflation using a lineal combination of the forecasts of...

In this paper I present a real-time estimation of the evolution of the Investment, constructed from a broad set of high frequency economic indicators: known in the literature as Nowcasting. The Nowcast exercise was developed considering three groups of monthly indicators throughout dynamic...

We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...

This document presents an alternative to measure informal economic activity at the municipal level for the 2013-2020 period in Mexico. Using satellite images of nightlight and microdata from the 2019 Economic Census, the formal and informal Value Added at the municipal level is estimated using a...