The objective of this analysis is to find the best hierarchical model to forecast the total demand for regular gasoline in Bogotá, Colombia and, therefore, the collection of gasoline surcharges, which is an important tax used to finance road networks and massive transportation systems. We used...

The objective of this analysis is to find the best hierarchical model to forecast the total demand for regular gasoline in Bogotá, Colombia and, therefore, the collection of gasoline surcharges, which is an important tax used to finance road networks and massive transportation systems. We used...

Spanish Abstract: La relación existente entre el riego y la rentabilidad de un activo financiero es una preocupación constante del inversionista a la hora de conformar su portafolio de inversión. La principal meta en la construcción del portafolio consiste en distribuir óptimamente la...

Two possibilities of analysis of economic cycles are studied in this document. Firstly, filter-design approaches consisting of the extraction of the information content of certain signals between two specific frequencies, as well as below or above certain frequencies. Secondly, model-based...

This paper contains the results of a non parametric multi-step ahead forecast for the monthly Colombian inflation, using Mean conditional Kernel estimation over inflation changes, with no inclusion of exogenous variables. The results are compared with those from an ARIMA and a nonlinear STAR....

Un conjunto de modelos GARCH multivariados son estimados y su validez empírica comparada a partir del cálculo de la medida VaR, para los retornos diarios de la tasa de cambio nominal del peso colombiano con respecto al dólar americano, euro, libra esterlina y yen japonés en el periodo...

The purpose of this paper is to show that an affine model which incorporates the condition of no arbitrage enables improvements in forecasting the term structure of interest rates in Mexico. The three factors of the yield curve (level, slope and curvature) used in the model are estimated by the...

Global macroeconometric models can be a powerful tool for economic analysis and forecasting in various scenarios. This paper analyses the NiGEM model and its application to the euro area, placing particular emphasis on the study of the relative situation of the member countries' economies.