This paper reviews the possibility that Harvard barometers would have enabled to predict the Great Depression. Based on data from the ABC curves in August 1929, could have been foreseen the collapse of the stock market and the dramatic fall in economic activity?. It is now accepted that Harvard...

The present project is related in the measurement of the risk and the improvement of the processes of monetary species. The main objective is to offer a methodology in the tickets administration because understanding of history is a situation that becomes in an advantage on the opportunities at...

This article analyzes the relation between housing market fluctuations and economic cycles.

En el presente trabajo se aplica el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos de Thirlwall a la economía argentina en el periodo 1968-2003 y en subperiodos seleccionados. Los objetivos centrales son dos. En primer lugar, a través de dicho modelo indagar en las causas del lento crecimiento...

The model proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) has been used for several researcher to fit the yield curve. In this paper we propose a discrete-time version of that model by using dynamic factors, such that the model is dynamic in the sense proposed by Diebold and Li (2006). We found the exact...

This research addresses the estimation of total factor productivity for Nicaragua throughout the period 1960-2019 by means of three methods: Solow residual, direct substitution method, and Malmquist index. Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that the direct substitution method is more...

Based on a deterministic hypothesis, this paper aims to verify the regularity of the stock market cycles and, if this regularity is found, the ability to predict major stock market crises. Harmonic analysis, or Fourier series, is applied in order to, decomposing into sinusoids curves, find the...

We propose a model to estimate the price volatility in of the Mexican Export Crude Oil Blend. The analysis relies on the conditional standard deviations obtained from a GARCH model. Data includes diary oil prices between January 2nd, 1998 and February 14th, 2007. The chosen model is of the GARCH...

Schwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the...

Econometrics is the area of statistics concerned in analyzing economic data, for both economic and business applications. This document, introduces the intermediate concepts of this area, for students already familiarized with basic econometric theory. In particular, topics concerning...