In this paper we study the hypothesis of "divergent expectations" with a signaling game. Such hypothesis points out that, in emerging economies, local investors tend to be front-runners in a currency crisis. Our analysis shows that changes in the informational structure available to the...

In recent years, Bolivia has accumulated a significant level of international reserves due to favorable external environment and the exchange rate regimen (crawling peg). In this context arises the question of: Which one is the optimal level of international reserves? According to the...

This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the CPI. The...

This paper analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate to different price indexes in Mexico. The analysis is based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR) using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2010. The pass-through effects are calculated by means of accumulated impulse response...

The purpose of this document is to prove that the establishment in Argentina of regulations and records for exchange market transactions has a positive externality with respect to the prevention and control of asset laundering and potential terrorist financing, thus making this type of criminal...

Through a VECM, during 1961-2017 in Argentina, we found cointegration between the Multilateral Real Exchange Rate and four fundamental variables: Net Foreign Assets, Public Expenditure, Terms of Trade, and Productivity. Defining the Real Exchange Rate as domestic prices in dollars, we estimate a...

This paper analyzes the results of some price stabilization programs classified in the literature as Exchange Rate Based Stabilization (ERBS) and Money Based Stabilization (MBS) in connection to their temporary nature for this, a theoretical and analytical framework is developed that allows...

This paper analyzes the exchange rate pass through to consumer prices in Mexico using different methodologies. First, we estimate Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR). Subsequently, we estimate Autoregressive Distributed Lags Models (ARDL) in order to make a long run analysis. In particular, we...

Exports are a determining variable of the national product so the objective is to perform quantitative estimations, first taking them in an aggregate manner, then by group of products and finally by the main destination market, considering here the four main ones constituted by the US, Chile,...

The exchange rate is influenced by multiple national and international macroeconomic factors, which generates high levels of uncertainty. The objective of this research is the construction of ARIMA-GARCH and ARIMAX-GARCH models as a tool for the forecast of the exchange rate in Colombia from the...