In this paper we build a socio-economic simulation model, called Carrion, to project the public expenditure on the retirement pensions, the social security contributions and the GDP through 2060. The model makes use of detailed hypothesis backed with econometric estimations on the behavior of...

The main idea upon which this paper is based is that outlined by Samuelson (1958) -that a pensions system, financed by way of transfers between generations, will only be viable in the long term if the internal rate of return of the system does not exceed the growth rate of salaries plus the...

Spanish Abstract: Este artículo argumenta que, en países emergentes, como Colombia, la combinación de la transición demográfica con una alta informalidad del mercado laboral hace inviable la existencia de un régimen de pensiones de reparto. En teoría, un país como Colombia tiene aún una...

English Abstract: In 2017 the Banco de España published an Occasional Paper (DO 1701) describing the institutional framework of the pension system, setting out the main medium-term challenges and analysing some reform alternatives. In this paper the Governor updates the foregoing analysis for...

This document tries to show how the capital asset pricing model based on the consumption theory under uncertainty could reproduce the statistical moments of Chilean interest rates. In order to reach this objective a model like the one proposed by Lucas (1980) is simulated and the parameters of...

This paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of production and unemployment at regional level, using Chilean quarterly data which spans between 1986:Q1 and 2005:Q4. Once the data set is characterized, it proceeds to modeling the cyclical performance of regional unemployment using auto regressive...

In this paper the ability of the Economic Perception Index, IPECO, to predict aggregate consumption and other macroeconomic variables is studied. The accuracy of the predictions is improved when IPECO is used as predictor of consumption, in comparison with the predictions of an autoregressive...

El objetivo de este estudio, fue realizar una evaluación respecto al cumplimiento de la meta de reciclaje acordada por el Ecuador en el marco del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo del Ecuador (2017-2021), y alineada con el Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible 12 de la Agenda 2030. Sobre la base de los...

The welfare and social peace are the most important concepts when making policy decisions and investment spending of public resources. Currently both welfare and social peace are compromised by the lack of productive capital and excess of speculative capital, the imbalance between suffering...

The welfare and social peace are the most important concepts when making policy decisions and investment spending of public resources. Currently both welfare and social peace are compromised by the lack of productive capital and excess of speculative capital, the imbalance between suffering...