Basándose en la literatura existente, en este trabajo se propone una metodología para el estudio gráfico y analítico del componente estacional en una serie temporal. El objetivo del análisis es determinar si el componente estacional responde a un comportamiento determinista o estocástico....

Today that Banco de México has adopted an inflation targeting scheme, it has become more relevant to know the effect that moderate inflation has on economic growth in order to design monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate that effect following a non-lineal approach similar to...

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become...

The hierarchical structure of the Colombian Consumer Price Index (CPI) makes possible to calculate inflation as a linear combination of its subcomponents. We use SARIMA models to forecast each component of CPI and construct an forecast of inflation using a lineal combination of the forecasts of...

This paper makes a comparative study of the inflation dynamics of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay during the 2004-2019 period. The goal is to document a number of empirical regularities that are useful for some discussions about the determinants and mechanisms of the...

We construct inflation pressure indicators based on the long-run relationship that exists between monetary aggregates and prices, once it is adequately adjusted to account for the scale of transactions, as well as the opportunity cost of holding money. To that end, an extensive long-run...

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the demand for the monetary aggregate M1 in Mexico. Using cointegration techniques, we identify both a stable long-run relationship between M1 and its determinants, and a statistically sound single-equation error-correction model. Results are used...

This paper analyzes the exchange rate pass through to consumer prices in Mexico using different methodologies. First, we estimate Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR). Subsequently, we estimate Autoregressive Distributed Lags Models (ARDL) in order to make a long run analysis. In particular, we...