La proyección de los términos de intercambio es un insumo relevante para el diseño de políticas macroeconómicas y es de vital importancia en países como Perú, cuya economía es pequeña y exportadora principalmente de materias primas. En el presente documento se aplica la metodología...

During the last decades the exchange trade in Spain overseas has experienced a major boost, firstly related to European market integration and, recently, to the worldwide globalization process, whereby huge exporters (i.e. China or India) have raised to the new international scene and the...

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Specialists in Economics from the Private Sector, maintained by Banco de M´exico. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April...

In this paper I present a real-time estimation of the evolution of the Investment, constructed from a broad set of high frequency economic indicators: known in the literature as Nowcasting. The Nowcast exercise was developed considering three groups of monthly indicators throughout dynamic...

Spanish Abstract: En el presente trabajo se lleva a un contexto regional la metodología de Stock y Watson (1991), usualmente aplicada en la construcción de indicadores de actividad económicas a nivel macroeconómico. A partir de siete series históricas claves del departamento del Valle del...

Spanish Abstract: Mediante un modelo BVAR y empleando los datos del Indicador Mensual de Actividad Económica (IMAE), se estima el efecto de distintos choques monetarios y del sector externo sobre el crecimiento cíclico del departamento del Valle del Cauca, y se compara con el efecto que tienen...

English Abstract: This paper first constructs a regional-scale indicator that seeks to gauge the volume of measures implemented at each point in time to contain the pandemic. Using textual analysis techniques, we analyse the information in press news. At the start of the pandemic, measures were...