The paper’s objective is to identify the balance of risks that economic agents incorporate in oil and exchange rate markets (peso/US dollar). For that purpose, two methodologies that are normally used to estimate the expected risk-neutral probability functions for a determinate underlying...

The exchange rate is influenced by multiple national and international macroeconomic factors, which generates high levels of uncertainty. The objective of this research is the construction of ARIMA-GARCH and ARIMAX-GARCH models as a tool for the forecast of the exchange rate in Colombia from the...

The paper analyzes the relationship between the Mexican peso/ USD exchange rate and the net positions of speculators in the peso futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange within the microstructure approach to exchange rate determination. For the period January 5th, 1999-November 1st,...

The behavior of Colombian politics over recent years, associated to the set of interventions on the exchange market, is the stylized fact that motivated this study. The objective is to measure the relative size of currency exchange interventions during 2004 and 2006, a period of appreciation of...

The exchange rate is influenced by multiple national and international macroeconomic factors, which generates high levels of uncertainty. The objective of this research is the construction of ARIMA-GARCH and ARIMAX-GARCH models as a tool for the forecast of the exchange rate in Colombia from the...

This paper studies the relation between government spending composition and long-run behavior of Colombian real Exchange rate given the recomposition since 2004 from public consumption to public investment. Our results suggest that empirical models work better when the relative price of...

This paper studies the relation between government spending composition and long-run behavior of Colombian real Exchange rate given the recomposition since 2004 from public consumption to public investment. Our results suggest that empirical models work better when the relative price of...

Se presenta un modelo de dos factores para estimar el riesgo de crédito de un portafolio de acciones. La especificación de los rendimientos incluye un factor local (IPC) y un factor global (S&P500) cuya estructura de correlaciones sigue un proceso DCC (Dynamic Conditional Correlations). Las...