The paper studies the behavior of the household saving rate during the period from 1985 to 2016. We examine the variables considered by the literature to determine the long-term saving rate: Income, wealth, unemployment, credit and indebtedness, public savings, population structure, social...

The paper studies the behavior of the household saving rate during the period from 1985 to 2016. We examine the variables considered by the literature to determine the long-term saving rate: Income, wealth, unemployment, credit and indebtedness, public savings, population structure, social...

Raising real interest rates has been cited as a way to increase private saving, and thus provide the resources for growth. But this may not be a viable approach in the poorest developing countries in which most people live at subsistence level. In these situations, consumption is not very...

This paper provides pioneering estimates of the impact of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, also known as leverage, on economic growth in Bolivia. The analysis reveals the pro-cyclicality between the economic and financial cycles, confirming the stylized facts. We emphasize the significance of...

Spanish Abstract: El modelo de ciclos reales desarrollado en este artículo busca explicar el exceso de volatilidad del consumo relativo al producto en países de América Latina. El modelo incorpora dos características presentes en estas economías: altos niveles de desigualdad de ingreso y un...

This paper reviews the possibility that Harvard barometers would have enabled to predict the Great Depression. Based on data from the ABC curves in August 1929, could have been foreseen the collapse of the stock market and the dramatic fall in economic activity?. It is now accepted that Harvard...

Based on a deterministic hypothesis, this paper aims to verify the regularity of the stock market cycles and, if this regularity is found, the ability to predict major stock market crises. Harmonic analysis, or Fourier series, is applied in order to, decomposing into sinusoids curves, find the...

Many researchers have explored the implications of Lucas’ misperception model. Arguably, the most important implication of this model is that the slope of the aggregate supply curve depends on the variability of nominal shocks. This paper examines this insight from Lucas’ model using annual...

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in...

We search for evidence against the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth rates for 1993-2012 Peruvian data. A family of dichotomous models provide the way to model the relationship between the those two variables' cycles. Given the acceleration/de-acceleration...