Spanish Abstract: La Teoría Clásica de Riesgo, orgullo de las matemáticas actuariales por más de un siglo, tiene entre sus precursores a Edmund Halley, al desarrollar el modelo sobre una Tabla de Mortalidad en 1693 y a Daniel Bernoulli, quien en 1738 presenta en Specimen Theoriae Novae de...

This paper focuses on the development of both failure prediction models on a paired sample and a random sample of small and medium-sized firms with head offices located in the region of Castilla y León (Spain), in order to prove if the predictive power of the developed models is affected by the...

This work has the aim of analyzing the influence of bank and trade debt in the duration of the process of bankruptcy in Spain. To that end, a sample of 567 firms, that fill in bankruptcy between 2004 and 2009, is used. The results show a different behavior between banks and trade creditors,...

This paper offers a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of eight popular forecasting methods: univariate, linear, discriminate and logit regression; recursive partitioning, rough sets, artificial neural networks, and DEA. Our goals are: clarify the complexity-effectiveness balance of each...

El estudio de las disfunciones financieras de las empresas ha sido un tópico común en la investigación a lo largo de las últimas décadas; no obstante, algunos aspectos de los procesos de fracaso han recibido relativamente poca atención. Este trabajo profundiza en su dimensión temporal....

This article shows the prediction of the level of insolvency in companies that are not listed on the stock exchange belonging to the health sector for one and two years in advance, using the multiple logistic regression analysis based on indicators of liquidity, indebtedness, financial structure...

The importance of micro-entities due to their generation of employment and propelling economic activity, together with the fact of their particularities, implies the need to design appropriate methods that anticipate their bankruptcies. For that purpose, a hybrid model by combining parametric...

A risk map is a tool, based on various information systems, that aims to identify the activities or processes at risk, quantify the probability of these events and measure the potential damage associated with their occurrence. This kind of map provides three valuable contributions to a Manager:...

This paper offers an exhaustive analysis of the effectiveness of several models and methodologies that are commonly used to forecast financial failure: Linear, MDA, Logit, and artificial neural network. Our main aim is to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses, in terms of technical...

A risk map is a tool, based on various information systems, that aims to identify the activities or processes at risk, quantify the probability of these events and measure the potential damage associated with their occurrence. This kind of map provides three valuable contributions to a Manager:...