This paper reviews the possibility that Harvard barometers would have enabled to predict the Great Depression. Based on data from the ABC curves in August 1929, could have been foreseen the collapse of the stock market and the dramatic fall in economic activity?. It is now accepted that Harvard...

Based on a deterministic hypothesis, this paper aims to verify the regularity of the stock market cycles and, if this regularity is found, the ability to predict major stock market crises. Harmonic analysis, or Fourier series, is applied in order to, decomposing into sinusoids curves, find the...

Many researchers have explored the implications of Lucas’ misperception model. Arguably, the most important implication of this model is that the slope of the aggregate supply curve depends on the variability of nominal shocks. This paper examines this insight from Lucas’ model using annual...

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in...

We search for evidence against the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth rates for 1993-2012 Peruvian data. A family of dichotomous models provide the way to model the relationship between the those two variables' cycles. Given the acceleration/de-acceleration...

We estimate the Okun Law for Andalusia and Spain using quarterly data for the period 1984-2000. We take a VAR approach that allows us to unveil the different dynamic behaviour of the relationship between the output gap and the unemployment gap in the two regions, as well as the asymmetric nature...

This paper presents an empirical characterization of Uruguayan’s Business Cycle applying the Switching Regime methodology; three scenarios were considered: recession, moderate growth and boom. The relation between regional and Uruguayan’s business cycle is analyzed through the same...

English Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to provide a set of stylised facts on the regularities of cyclical patterns in Spain compared with those of the major European countries and to analyse the synchronisation of the main real variables of these economies, which have close trading and...

Spanish Abstract: MotivaciónEl impacto desigual por ramas de actividad de las recientes perturbaciones que han afectado a la economía española, vinculadas tanto al COVID-19 o como al repunte de los precios energéticos, ha puesto de manifiesto la importancia del seguimiento de la actividad...

The present project is related in the measurement of the risk and the improvement of the processes of monetary species. The main objective is to offer a methodology in the tickets administration because understanding of history is a situation that becomes in an advantage on the opportunities at...