The aim of this study is to compare the ex post forecast accuracies of VAR, ARIMA, ES, Combining and Add-factor methods. In this comparison, the ex post forecasts of 2000:1-2000:4 are obtained by using the data of the Turkish private consumption for the period of 1987:1-1999:4. Beside private...

This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...

Turkish Abstract: Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin nüfus açısından en büyük üç şehrinin konut fiyatlarındaki değişimleri etkileyen faktörler incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda Ocak 2010 – Ağustos 2016 döneminde İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir'in hedonik konut fiyat endeksindeki değişimleri...

Turkish Abstract: Bu metin, bugün dahi gecerli olan ve zaman içerisinde daha da gelistirilmis bulunan, örneğin halen Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından kullanılan, para bazı analizi ve parasal kontrol modeli üzerine yapilmis ilk araştırmalardandır.Çalısmada para bazı...

This paper observes if budget deficit has significant impact on interest rates, exchange rates, and, price level through (a) theoretical discussions, and, (b) relevant statistical estimations by regression models and Granger causality models. The paper (i) reaches the regression output depicting...

(This paper is in Turkish) This study investigates the stability of the relationship between demand for real money, real income, and interest rates in Turkey using quarterly data for the period from 1988:I to 2005: IV. According to conventional stability tests the demand for money is subject to...

In this paper the alternative value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) analysis were made according to different error distribution assumptions by using stock market daily return series of Turkey (ISE100), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Japan (NIKKEI225) and France (CAC40). The backtesting...

Interest rate is one of the most observed and forecasted variables in financial markets. Interest rates and the volatility of interest rates play a crucial role in pricing financial instruments. In this empirical study, we try to investigate which short term interest rate model is appropriate...

The relationships between inflation and its uncertainty have long been perceived in the economics literature as a special research area based mainly on empirical findings. Testing the causality between these aggregates enables us to attain the significant knowledgement of whether or not...