The aim of this study is to compare the ex post forecast accuracies of VAR, ARIMA, ES, Combining and Add-factor methods. In this comparison, the ex post forecasts of 2000:1-2000:4 are obtained by using the data of the Turkish private consumption for the period of 1987:1-1999:4. Beside private...

English Abstract: The study examines how foreign exchange (FX) rates in Turkey are affected by the pandemic considering the impacts of monetary policy responses to the pandemic. Selected FX rates are examined by using 10 independent variables containing monetary policy indicators and the...

Interest rate is one of the most observed and forecasted variables in financial markets. Interest rates and the volatility of interest rates play a crucial role in pricing financial instruments. In this empirical study, we try to investigate which short term interest rate model is appropriate...

Turkish Abstract: Bu çalışmada, BİST 100 hisse senedi endeksi getirisi ile döviz kuru, altın fiyatı, mevduat faiz oranı ve reel konut fiyat endeksi arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, 2000:01-2014:07 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak, eşbütünleşme yöntemleri ile...

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the...

The New Classical theorem asserts that (a) the individuals with rational expectations do not change their consumption levels unless the expected permanent income changes, and, (b), thusly, tax and/or debt policies are not significant on consumption decisions of the individuals, at least in the...

This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...

This paper observes if budget deficit has significant impact on interest rates, exchange rates, and, price level through (a) theoretical discussions, and, (b) relevant statistical estimations by regression models and Granger causality models. The paper (i) reaches the regression output depicting...

(This paper is in Turkish) This study investigates the stability of the relationship between demand for real money, real income, and interest rates in Turkey using quarterly data for the period from 1988:I to 2005: IV. According to conventional stability tests the demand for money is subject to...

In this paper the alternative value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) analysis were made according to different error distribution assumptions by using stock market daily return series of Turkey (ISE100), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Japan (NIKKEI225) and France (CAC40). The backtesting...