This paper aims to explain the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Turkey. For this purpose, a bivariate SVAR model with the rates of change in the real and in the nominal exchange rates as endogenous variables is specified, and two types of structural shocks are identified as real and...

(This paper is in Turkish) In this paper we have empirically investigated the validity of the contractionary devaluation hypothesis in Turkey by using the Structural VAR methodology developed by Bernanke (1986). The model used in this study shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, real...

Turkish Abstract: Yükselen piyasa ekonomisi kapsamında 22 gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomisinde satınalma gücü paritesi hipotezinin geçerliliğinin yeni ekonometrik tekniklerle test edildiği bu çalışmada, büyük ölçüde hipotezin aksi yönünde sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Buna...

Turkish Abstract:Bu makalede enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Türkiye için test edilmiştir. Tarihsel süreç kapsamında Türkiye'de enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler, dönemler bazında çizelge ve şekiller kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada...

This study aims to identify and analyze the effects of Turkish Central Bank's interventions over currency rate volatility. US Dolar and Euro Returns of Turkish Lira between 04.01.1999 and 24.09.2008 are modelled in the study. Econometric methods used are ARFIMA-GARCH and ARFIMA-FIGARCH models....

The relationships between inflation and its uncertainty have long been perceived in the economics literature as a special research area based mainly on empirical findings. Testing the causality between these aggregates enables us to attain the significant knowledgement of whether or not...

In this paper the causality relationships between the inflationary process, experienced by the Turkish economy, and some main money supply measures have been tried to be investigated, and the direction of these relationships has also been aimed to be determined through the vector autoregression...

This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...