The aim of this study is to compare the ex post forecast accuracies of VAR, ARIMA, ES, Combining and Add-factor methods. In this comparison, the ex post forecasts of 2000:1-2000:4 are obtained by using the data of the Turkish private consumption for the period of 1987:1-1999:4. Beside private...

This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...

Using data for 67 countries for the period 1980-2005, we analyze to what extent do the decisions of having nuclear power and the share of nuclear energy in total energy use depend on economic, politic, social and geographic factors. Our econometric model that takes the selectivity problems of...

The Republic of Azerbaijan is one of the oil and gas rich countires of the former Soviet Union. After the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field, natural gas exltation and exportation became one of the key issues in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas stategy. Diversification of the oil and gas...

Bu çalışmanın amacı uluslararası emtia piyasalarından kaynaklanan asimetrik ve doğrusal olmayan fiyat hareketlerinin iç fiyatlara geçişkenliğini Türkiye için ölçmektir. Bu amaçla 2003M02-2015M02 dönemine ait aylık bazda(145 gözlem) çeşitli uluslararası emtia...

Turkish Abstract: Şüphesiz, petrol fiyatı gelişmekte olan petrol ihracatçı ülkelerin makroekonomik performansında büyük rol oynamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, döviz kuru, petrol fiyat dinamikleri temelinde bu ülkelerin araştırması gereken temel makroekonomik göstergelerden biridir....

The aim of this paper is to measure asymetric and nonlinear pass-through of international commodity prices to internal prices in the Turkish case. For this purpose, monthly data set of various international commodity prices(oil and food prices) and internal prices (ie. consumer price indices)...

This paper observes if budget deficit has significant impact on interest rates, exchange rates, and, price level through (a) theoretical discussions, and, (b) relevant statistical estimations by regression models and Granger causality models. The paper (i) reaches the regression output depicting...

(This paper is in Turkish) This study investigates the stability of the relationship between demand for real money, real income, and interest rates in Turkey using quarterly data for the period from 1988:I to 2005: IV. According to conventional stability tests the demand for money is subject to...

In this paper the alternative value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) analysis were made according to different error distribution assumptions by using stock market daily return series of Turkey (ISE100), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Japan (NIKKEI225) and France (CAC40). The backtesting...