We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECDcountries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative priorbased on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben-efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust...

We contribute to the empirical debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the features of the relationship between money growth and inflation in a Bayesian Markov Switching framework for a set of four countries, the US, the UK, the Euro area and Japan, over an estimation period...

We develop a Markov Switching model for inflation with time-varying transition probabilities. Inflation is characterized by two regimes (high and low inflation) and the probability of regime changes depends on money growth. Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany,...

We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECD countries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative prior based on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben- efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a...

In this paper we propose new estimation techniques in connection with regression models whose errors have distributions which are members of the celebrated Pearson’s system. Efficient MCMC procedures are proposed in the context of likelihood—based inference. The new techniques are applied to...