The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find...

The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find...

Nous examinons les differences entre les pays ou le financement de la croissance est assure par l'entree de capitaux financiers et ceux ou il resulte des flux d'investissements directs etrangers (IDE). L'analyse de quelques situations nationales confirme les intuitions theoriques: le financement...

After 1999, there will be two groups of european countries: those participating in the monetary union and the others. We ask the question of the exchange rate regime between those two groups of countries: flexible rates between the countries outside the union and the union, or fixed rates?

Nous construisons un modele simple d'equilibre de portefeuille entre les Etats-Unis et le Japon pour analyser les consequences des evolutions financieres recentes dans ces deux pays: politique monetaire et politique budgetaire tres expansionnistes au Japon; substitution de dette privee a la...

The standard literature on working time has modelled the decisions of firms in a deterministic framework in which firms can choose between employment and overtime (given mandated standard hours). Contrary to this approach, we follow the real options approach, which allows us to investigate the...

This paper takes seriously the idea that the coefficients of a VAR and the variance of shocks may be time-varying and so employs a Markov regime-switching VAR model to describe and analyse the time-varying credibility of Hong Kong’s currency board system. The endogenously estimated discrete...

Given that the value of China’s currency has been hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China’s real and nominal exchange rates. Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium...

Plusieurs pays, en particulier en Asie dans la periode recente, ont choisi de fixer leur taux de change nominal par rapport au dollar ou par rapport a un panier de monnaies. Ceci a entraine une derive du taux de change reel et de la competitivite, et finalement une crise de change et des marches...

Using a simple macroeconomic two-country model, we analyze the possible structural reasons for which the European Central Bank might have a monetary policy different from the one pursued presently by the Bundesbank (implying a weaker or a stroger parity for the european currencies vis-a-vis the...