Showing 1 - 10 of 68
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005138914
Journals favor rejection of the null hypothesis. This selection upon tests may distort the behavior of researchers. Using 50,000 tests published between 2005 and 2011 in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained by selection. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011163474
This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes trad-ers' characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012726688
This paper addresses two questions: (i) how do governments actually pay for the fiscal costs associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different financing methods for post-crisis rates of inflation and depreciation? We study these questions using a general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012727978
Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012728348
This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currency markets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selection and customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade's likely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012731882
This paper examines the roles of order flow (reflecting private information) and news (reflecting public information) in explaining exchange rate volatility. Analyzing four months of a bank's high frequency US dollar-euro trading, three order flows are used in addition to seasonal patterns in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012711522
The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753309
This paper describes and analyzes quot;automated interventionquot; of a target zone. Unusually detailed information about the order book allows studying intervention effects in a microstructure approach. We find in our sample that intervention increases exchange rate volatility (and spread) for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753677
We show that information about the counterparty of a trade affects the future trading decisions of individual traders. The effect is such that traders tend to reverse their order flow in line with the better-informed counterparties. Informed traders primarily incorporate their own private as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012715271