Showing 1 - 9 of 9
self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in real time, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effects are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904149
This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as … several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010553640
This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763196
a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678816
We provide conditions for local stability and instability of an equilibrium point in certain systems of nonautonomous nonstochastic difference equations. In the systems under study the influence of time is present through a positive scalar "gain" parameter which converges in the limit to zero....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005371114
This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium path of inflation depends on agents' expectations and a vector of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069600
We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification Equilibrium is an equilibrium stochastic process in which agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005464110
This paper identifies two channels through which the economy can generate endogenous inflation and output volatility, an empirical regularity, by introducing model uncertainty into a Lucas-type monetary model. The equilibrium path of inflation depends on agents' expectations and a vector of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005464125
This is the text of an interview with Thomas J. Sargent. The interview will be published in Macroeconomic Dynamics.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593761