This paper applies an extended and generalised version of the recursive modelling strategy developed in Pesaran and Timmermann (1995) to the UK stock market. The focus of the analysis is to simulate investors' search in 'real time' for a model that can forecast stock returns. We find evidence of...

Numerous studies in the finance literature have investigated technical analysis to determine its validity as an investment tool. Several of these studies conclude that technical analysis does have merit, however, it is noted that the effects of data-snooping are not fully accounted for. In this...

We analyze the pricing and informational efficiency of the Italian market for options written on the most important stock index, the MIB30. We find several indications inconsistent with the hypothesis that the Italian MIBO is an efficient market. We report that a striking percentage of the data...

This paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader...

This paper studies the effects of conflict onset on asset markets applying the event study methodology. We consider a sample of 112 conflicts during the period 1974-2004 and find that a sizeable fraction of them had a significant impact on stock market indices and on major commodity prices....

This paper studies the relationship between civil war and the value of firms in a poor, resource abundant country using microeconomic data for Angola. We focus on diamond mining firms and conduct an event study on the sudden end of the conflict, marked by the death of the rebel movement leader...

This paper investigates the process determining mutual funds' conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparametric approach to estimate the effects of a fund's age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship....

This paper examines the robustness of the evidence on predictability of US stock returns, and addresses the issue of whether this predictability could have been historically exploited by investors to earn profits in excess of a buy-and-hold strategy in the market index. We find that the...

This paper finds strong evidence of time-variations in the joint distribution of returns on a stock market portfolio and portfolios tracking size- and value effects. Mean returns, volatilities and correlations between these equity portfolios are found to be driven by underlying regimes that...

This paper proposes a new tractable approach to solving asset allocation problems in situations with a large number of risky assets which pose problems for standard approaches. Investor preferences are assumed to be defined over moments of the wealth distribution such as its mean, variance, skew...